Booking Holdings to Report Q1 Earnings: What Should Investors Do?

Booking Holdings Inc. BKNG is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2025 results on April 29.

For the first quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $4.59 billion, suggesting growth of 4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $17.22 per share, indicating a decline of 15.55% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. The consensus mark has declined 2% in the past 30 days.

The company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average being 18.98%. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

Booking Holdings Inc. Stock Price and EPS Surprise

Booking Holdings Inc. price-eps-surprise | Booking Holdings Inc. Quote

Let’s see how things have shaped up for the upcoming announcement.

Key Factors to Note for BKNG

As Booking Holdings approaches its first-quarter 2025 earnings report, investors should consider maintaining current positions or waiting for a potential pullback before establishing new ones. The company's first-quarter results are likely to reflect several countervailing forces that could create near-term volatility despite strong long-term prospects.

Booking Holdings' first-quarter 2025 performance is expected to have faced headwinds from multiple factors disclosed during its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. Management specifically guided for first-quarter room night growth between 5% and 7%, representing a deceleration from the fourth quarter's 13% growth. This slowdown stems partly from tough comparisons to first-quarter 2024, which benefited from an extra leap year day, while first-quarter 2025 faces a challenging calendar shift with Easter moving from March to April. CFO Ewout Steenbergen explicitly mentioned that these timing issues could impact first-quarter results by approximately 14 percentage points.

Currency fluctuations are anticipated to create additional pressure, with management warning about a 3-percentage point headwind to gross bookings and revenues from FX changes, plus a 3.5-percentage point impact on adjusted EBITDA. When normalized for Easter timing, FX impacts, and the leap year comparison, management still projects low double-digit underlying growth, but headline numbers may disappoint.

The agency model shows signs of weakness. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for agency revenues is pegged at $1.59 billion, indicating a decline of 9.6% year over year.

Key Initiatives Taken by BKNG in Q1

Recent initiatives could offset some of these challenges. The company has been aggressive with marketing campaigns across its portfolio brands. Booking.com launched a high-profile Super Bowl campaign extending its "Booking.yeah" messaging in February, while Priceline debuted a new "Buzzer Beater" campaign targeting college basketball fans with up to 50% off travel during March Madness. Agoda has established multiple strategic partnerships in Asian markets, including collaborations with the Macao Government Tourism Office, Paytm Travel in India, and an expanded Eco Deals program with WWF across 10 markets.

The company continues its strategic focus on alternative accommodations, expanded merchant offerings, and investments in AI capabilities. Management highlighted during fourth-quarter earnings that the merchant mix reached 59% of total gross bookings in 2024, providing greater flexibility and merchandising opportunities, though full benefits may take time to materialize.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s gross bookings is pegged at $46.37 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of 6.6%.

Investors should also note the company's transformation program, which aims to deliver approximately $150 million in cost savings during 2025, with most benefits not expected until later years. While this creates long-term value, near-term quarters may show elevated expenses as the company reinvests about $170 million into strategic priorities like GenAI capabilities and connected trip initiatives.

Given these mixed signals, a prudent approach would be to hold existing positions or await a more attractive entry point following the first-quarter report before establishing new ones.

What Our Model Says for BKNG Stock

Per the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.

Booking Holdings currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.89% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other stocks worth considering, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this season.

Affirm AFRM currently has an Earnings ESP of +52.00% and sports a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. 
 
AFRM shares have declined 27.9% year to date (YTD). It is slated to report its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on May 8. 

Clarivate CLVT currently has an Earnings ESP of +7.76% and a Zacks Rank #3. 
 
CLVT shares have lost 35.3% in the YTD period. It is set to report its first-quarter 2025 results on April 29. 
  
Airbnb ABNB has an Earnings ESP of +6.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. 
 
ABNB shares have lost 12.6% YTD. Airbnb is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2025 results on May 1.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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