Uber vs. Lyft Earnings Preview: Robotaxi Ambitions in Focus

Uber, Lyft to Report Earnings This Week

Later this week, the two ride-share leaders,Uber Technologies (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT), will report first-quarter 2025 earnings.Lyft generates almost its entire revenue from ridesharing and owns roughly a quarter of the ride-sharing market in the United States. Meanwhile, Uber is the dominant player in the ride-sharing industry, with an approximately 75% market share.

Wall Street analysts see Lyft reporting flat EPS with gross bookings growth between 10-14% when it reports earnings on Thursday after the market close. Meanwhile, Wall Street sees Uber earnings of $0.51 per share swinging from a loss last quarter, with gross bookings growth between 17-21%.

Uber, Lyft Expected Moves

Traders can determine a stock’s expected post-earnings move of a stock by analyzing the implied volatility of options prices. The options market currently implies a move of + or – 7.8% for Uber and a juicy 15.6% move for Lyft.

Uber Versus Lyft: Which is the Ride-Share Leader?

Beyond its overwhelming market share, Uber has established itself as the clear leader in the ride-sharing industry over the past year for three reasons:

1.       Uber Exhibits Relative Strength Versus Lyft: The most straightforward yet powerful indicator of leadership is price performance. Year-to-date, UBER shares are up a juicy 43%, trouncing LYFT’s 0.5% gains. Uber’s performance is even more impressive considering the volatile market backdrop and the S&P 500’s weak performance.

2.       Uber Eats: While Lyft is a one-dimensional company, Uber benefits from a boom in its delivery business, Uber Eats. During the COVID-19 pandemic Uber enjoyed a spike in online order volumes, and, since then, the business has never looked back. In addition, Uber-backed Serve Robotics (SERV) is the leader in autonomous sidewalk delivery robots. SERV is expanding its partnership with Uber Eats to deploy up to 2,000 autonomous delivery robots in multiple US cities by early 2026.

3.       Uber’s Robotaxi Partnerships: Uber has inked several key partnerships to build out its autonomous ride-sharing ambitions with companies like Nvidia (NVDA), Volkswagen (VWAGY), and Momenta.

What to Watch: Robotaxi Wars

Savvy investors understand that markets are forward looking. As such, the most critical component to watch in the ride-sharing earnings reports are comments about robotaxis. CNBC recently reported that Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Waymo robotaxi service, which Uber has a partnership with, already provides a mind-boggling 250,000 paid robotaxi rides per week in the United States. Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) will kick off its Cybercab robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, this summer.

Waymo’s scorching hot growth proves that the idea of a robotaxi has transformed from a dream to reality. The big question for Uber and Lyft is, will they adapt to the robotaxi revolution, or will they be cut out of the market? Thus far, Uber’s numerous partnerships prove that the company is unwilling to take chances. While Lyft has done less on the robotaxi front than Uber, the company inked a deal with Mobileye (MBLY) to launch robotaxis this summer.

Uber, Lyft Swing to Profitability, Stable Growth

After years of losses, Uber and Lyft reached “scale” in 2023, swung to profitability, and never looked back.

Lyft and Uber Tend to Outperform Wall Street Expectations

Over the past few years, Lyft and Uber have consistently delivered bullish earnings surprises. For instance, LYFT has beaten Zacks Consensus analyst estimates for eight consecutive quarters. Meanwhile, Lyft has beat expectations by a margin of 42.11% over the past four quarters.

Uber Technical Analysis

Uber has exhibited incredible relative price strength over the past year and is emerging from a massive monthly bull flag pattern.

Lyft Enters Pivotal Technical Zone

Though Lyft shares have lagged Uber, the stock has a chance to change the narrative if its earnings can please Wall Street. The heavily shorted stock is approaching its 200-day moving average as earnings approach – the best gauge of the long-term trend.

Bottom Line

As the two ride-sharing giants prepare to unveil their first-quarter 2025 results, many questions about future growth, robotaxi ambitions, and the evolving ride-sharing industry will be answered. Though Lyft and Uber are each fundamentally strong stocks, UBER has separated itself as the leader through its price action, exploding Uber Eats business, and robotaxi partnerships.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research