Will Dollar General or Dollar Tree Stock Keep Rising as Earnings Near?

Although Dollar General DG and Dollar Tree DLTR stock are still well off their 52-week highs, both have started to make a sharp rebound this year thanks to turnaround strategies that are aimed at improving operating efficiency.

Ahead of their Q1 results this week, investors are certainly wondering if the rebound in Dollar General and Dollar Tree stock will continue with the discount retailers set to release their quarterly reports on Wednesday, June 3, and Thursday, June 4, respectively.

Dollar General & Dollar Tree Turnaround Strategies

Implementing a “Back to Basics” strategy, Dollar General has focused on inventory management, store remodels, and reducing shrinkage (retail theft) to improve operational efficiency and customer satisfaction.

Meanwhile, Dollar Tree has announced plans to sell its ailing Family Dollar business to Brigade Capital for $1 billion, with the deal expected to close during Q2. While this will be a fraction of the $8 billion purchase price Dollar Tree originally paid for Family Dollar, it will put an end to the declining profitability and overhead costs that the company has faced by trying to maintain its Family Dollar operations.

DG & DLTR Performance Overview

Notably, Dollar General stock is still trading 30% below its 52-week high of $141 a share, with Dollar Tree shares 25% below their one-year high of $121. That said, DG and DLTR have now rebounded over +20% year to date after surging more than +30% in the last three months. 

Dollar General & Dollar Tree Q1 Expectations

Zacks' projections call for Dollar General’s Q1 sales to be up 4% year over year to $10.29 billion. On the bottom line, Dollar General’s Q1 EPS is expected to dip to $1.47 compared to $1.65 a year ago. However, the Zacks ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) does suggest Dollar General could surpass earnings expectations, with the most recent analysts' estimates (most accurate) having Q1 EPS pegged at $1.51 (Current Qtr below) and 2% above the underlying Zacks Consensus.

As for Dollar Tree, the turnaround on its top and bottom lines is not as evident, with Q1 sales expected to drop to $4.54 billion compared to $7.63 billion in the prior year quarter. Furthermore, Dollar Tree’s earnings are slated to be down 17% to $1.19 per share from EPS of $1.43 in the comparative period. That said, the Zacks ESP also indicates Dollar Tree may surpass earnings expectations, with the most accurate estimate at $1.25 and 5% above the Zacks Consensus.

DG & DLTR Valuation Comparison

Despite their woes in recent years, Dollar General and Dollar Tree’s more reasonable valuations have attracted investors, with both trading at 17X forward earnings.

This is a nice discount to the S&P 500 and their Zacks Retail-Discount Stores Industry average of 22X, with some noteworthy peers in the space being Costco Wholesale COST and Target TGT. Plus, DG and DLTR trade under the optimum level of less than 2X sales.

Bottom Line: Hold Dollar General, Dollar Tree Stocks

Ahead of their Q1 reports, Dollar General and Dollar Tree stock both land a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Amid the magnificent rebound in DG and DLTR over the last few months, more upside from here will largely depend on the ability to show that a turnaround in operating efficiency is indeed upon us.

Considering such, reaching or exceeding Q1 expectations will certainly help, but most importantly, will be the need to offer favorable updates regarding their outlook and growth strategies.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research