ExxonMobil's Valuation Remains Premium: Are Investors Overpaying?

Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM is trading at a 6.47x trailing 12-month Enterprise Value to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EV/EBITDA), which is at a premium compared with the broader industry average of 4.05x.

Although it seems that investors are willing to pay a premium for the stock, the billion-dollar question is: Is it justified to overpay for the stock? Let’s delve into XOM’s fundamentals and overall business environment.

ExxonMobil’s Upstream Business to Remain Soft

Per the latest short-term energy outlook of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”), the West Texas Intermediate Spot Average price for 2025 is projected at $61.81 per barrel, significantly lower than $76.60 per barrel in 2024. EIA further lowers the projections for the commodity’s price for 2026 to $55.24 per barrel. Since analysts are expecting oil supply to grow faster than the demand for it, global oil inventories are rising, putting pressure on crude prices, which could hurt XOM’s upstream operations.  

Since ExxonMobil generates the king-size of its earnings from its upstream operations, lower crude prices are likely to hurt its bottom line.

Other integrated majors that are also getting the brunt of lower oil prices are Chevron Corporation CVX and BP plc BP. This is because both CVX and BP generate significant proportions of their earnings from exploration and production activities of oil and natural gas.

Many analysts think that commodity price volatility, especially when crude prices are likely to fall in the days ahead, could limit cash flows of CVX and BP like XOM, and hence require cautious capital allocation.

Challenging Chemical Business of XOM

Through its chemicals business, XOM has established itself as a major global player in the petrochemical industry. The integrated energy major manufactures key petrochemicals like olefins and polyolefins, which are essential raw materials used in a wide range of everyday items.

However, the global market is facing an oversupply of chemical products, largely due to sluggish demand for petrochemicals being produced by numerous new plants built by other companies apart from ExxonMobil. With oversupply, prices for chemical products are lower, thereby reflecting XOM’s challenging chemical business.

Should Investors Bet on XOM Stock?

The ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China create uncertainty for ExxonMobil, which could negatively impact its profits and complicate the company’s planning for future projects and expenditures.

The challenging business environment is getting reflected in XOM’s price chart. Over the past year, the stock lost 4.6%, underperforming the 1.5% decline of the composite stocks belonging to the oil-energy sector. However, XOM still fared better than Chevron, which fell 6.5%, and BP, which sank 13.4%.

One-Year Price Chart

Notably, for 2025 and 2026, the integrated energy giant has witnessed downward earnings estimate revisions over the past 30 days. Similarly, Chevron and BP have also faced downward revisions to their earnings forecasts for the same period.

Thus, considering the overall business challenges, it would be ideal for investors to get rid of XOM stock right away. Currently, XOM carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).  

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research