Mosaic's Q2 Earnings and Revenues Miss, Phosphate Volumes Fall

The Mosaic Company MOS reported a net profit of $411 million or $1.29 per share for the second quarter of 2025. This marks an upside from a loss of $162 million or 50 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings per share were 51 cents, down from 54 cents a year ago. It lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 67 cents.

Net sales rose nearly 6.7% year over year to $3,005.7 million in the quarter. The metric lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,130.5 million.

MOS’ Segment Highlights

Net sales in the Potash segment were $711 million in the reported quarter, up around 7.2% from $663 million in the prior-year quarter. Sales volume totaled 2.3 million tons, flat year over year. The figure missed our estimate of 2.5 million tons. The segment’s gross margin rose to $89 per ton from $79 per ton in the year-ago quarter. The average MOP selling price increased to $261 per ton from $224 per ton.

The Phosphate division’s net sales were $1.2 billion, flat year over year. Sales volume in the segment totaled 1.5 million tons, down from 1.7 million tons last year. The figure matched our estimate of 1.5 million tons. The gross margin in the quarter was $67 per ton, down from $91 per ton. The average DAP selling price rose to $668 per ton from $575 per ton a year ago.

Net sales in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment were $1.2 billion in the quarter, up about 20% year over year. Sales volume in the quarter remained flat at 2.2 million tons. The figure lagged our estimate of 2.4 million tons. The gross margin in the quarter was $73 per ton, up from $46 per ton in the prior-year quarter.

MOS’ Financials

At the end of the quarter, Mosaic had cash and cash equivalents of $286.2 million, down 11.1% year over year. Long-term debt was $3,331.3 million, up 4.3%.

Net cash provided by operating activities was $609.5 million in the reported quarter.

MOS’ Outlook

For full-year 2025, the company expects phosphate production volumes to range between 6.9 million and 7.2 million tons, while potash production is projected at 9.3 million to 9.5 million tons. Mosaic Fertilizantes sales volumes are anticipated to be at the bottom end of the 10-10.8 million ton range. 

Total capital expenditures are estimated at $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion, with depreciation, depletion and amortization expenses expected to be in the range of $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion. Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses are forecasted between $520 million and $550 million, and net interest expense is expected to be $180-$200 million. The effective tax rate is projected to be in the high 20% range, while the cash tax rate is expected to be in the low 20% band. 

For the third quarter of 2025, phosphate sales volumes are expected between 1.8 million and 2.0 million tons, with DAP FOB plant prices ranging from $700 to $720. Potash sales volumes are projected at 2.2 million to 2.4 million tons, with MOP FOB mine prices estimated between $270 and $290.

MOS’ Price Performance

Mosaic’s shares have lost 34.2% in the past year compared with a 28.5% decline of the industry.

MOS’ Zacks Rank & Key Picks

MOS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Better-ranked stocks worth a look in the basic materials space include Sylvamo Corporation SLVM, Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. ASM and Barrick Mining Corporation B.

Sylvamo is slated to report second-quarter results on Aug 8. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 47 cents. SLVM beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with the average earnings surprise being 6.5%. SLVM carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Avino Silver is scheduled to report second-quarter results on Aug 13. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ASM’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at 3 cents. ASM beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average earnings surprise being 104.2%. ASM currently carries a Zacks Rank #1.

Barrick Mining is slated to report second-quarter results on Aug 11. The consensus estimate for Barrick’s earnings is pegged at 47 cents. Barrick, carrying a Zacks Rank #1, beat the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters, with the average earnings surprise being 12.5%.

 

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