EL's Q4 Earnings on the Horizon: Essential Insights for Investors

The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) is likely to register declines in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on Aug. 20. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales is pegged at $3.4 billion, implying a decrease of 12.2% from the prior-year quarter's reported level.

The consensus mark for fiscal fourth-quarter earnings has increased 2 cents in the past 30 days to 8 cents per share, indicating a decline of 87.5% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. EL delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 107.4%, on average.

The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

 

The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Quote

Things to Know Ahead of EL’s Results

The Estee Lauder Companies is navigating a challenging market environment, with persistent weaknesses in Mainland China and global travel retail. A decline in consumer sentiment in China has been contributing to a slowdown in the prestige beauty sector and lower conversion rates across these markets.

Due to an expected steeper decline in Asia travel retail, following a 28% organic drop in the third quarter of fiscal 2025, and continued soft demand in China and Korea, the company expects ongoing pressure on fourth-quarter net sales. Retailer destocking across Asia-Pacific, North America and parts of Europe, as partners manage working capital, is likely to have further weighed on sales, even as retail trends, excluding travel retail, show gradual improvement. Our model expects a 13.4% organic net sales decline in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Estee Lauder Companies has been grappling with rising operating expenses, which increased 580 basis points as a percentage of sales in the fiscal third quarter, largely due to continued investments to fuel growth in key areas of the business. Any deleverage in operating expenses might have hit margins.

Despite these challenges, The Estee Lauder Companies has been benefiting from its Profit Recovery and Growth Plan, which focuses on three main areas: accelerating margin expansion, fueling growth through targeted investments and simplifying processes to enhance agility. The company’s expanded presence in high-growth digital channels is also a positive factor. In addition, EL is well-positioned in emerging markets, where demand is steadily increasing. The continuation of these factors is likely to have offered some respite in its fiscal fourth-quarter performance.

Earnings Whispers for EL Stock

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for The Estee Lauder Companies this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is exactly the case here.

The Estee Lauder Companies carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of +36.11%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some other companies worth considering, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

The J. M. Smucker Co. (SJM) currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.45% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2026 EPS is pegged at $1.90, which implies a 22.1% year-over-year decline. The consensus mark for The J. M. Smucker’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.1 billion, which indicates a decline of 0.8% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. SJM delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.7%, on average.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) presently has an Earnings ESP of +4.73% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter fiscal 2025 EPS is pegged at 91 cents, which implies 16.7% year-over-year growth.

The consensus mark for Ollie's Bargain’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $657.8 million, which indicates growth of 13.7% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. OLLI delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2%, on average.

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.09% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The consensus estimate for Keurig Dr Pepper’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $4.2 billion, which indicates growth of 6.9% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 EPS is pegged at 54 cents, which implies 5.9% year-over-year growth. KDP delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.1%, on average.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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