The Trade Desk: 2 Signs of a Comeback, 1 Risk Ahead

Having suffered a 70% drop followed by a 110% rally within the first eight months of the year, The Trade Desk Inc. (NASDAQ: TTD) has been one of the most volatile tech stocks of 2025. As we recently highlighted, that rollercoaster hasn’t eased since. Once seen as a reliable pure-play on digital advertising, the stock started a 50% plunge after August’s earnings, only bottoming out in mid-September. Since then, it has been consolidating and showing early signs of recovery, leaving investors divided over whether this marks the start of a genuine comeback or just another pause before further weakness.

Shares opened right around $50 on Thursday, still far below pre-earnings levels but already more than 10% above September’s low. Importantly, support at $43 has now held for the second time this year, creating a base that bears have failed to break. The comeback case is building, but the stock isn’t out of the woods just yet. Here are two of the top reasons to think a comeback has officially begun, and one reason to think it’s still some time away.  

Technical Momentum Returns

The first sign that The Trade Desk’s recovery has legs comes from the chart. A bounce of more than 10% from early September lows, with $43 once again acting as a hard floor, has strengthened the technical setup. Each time the stock rebounds from this level, it becomes harder for sellers to push it lower, building investor confidence that it is a meaningful support zone.

Adding to this foundation, the MACD crossed into a bullish pattern some weeks ago. It has managed to stay there into October, suggesting a trend reversal is underway, while the stock’s RSI has rebounded out of extremely oversold territory. When occurring at the same time, these signals can often mark the start of a sustained rally, especially when supported by other tailwinds. For a stock that has looked technically broken since August, the past two weeks have brought much-needed signs of life.

Product and Market Tailwinds Build

The second reason to believe in a comeback lies in The Trade Desk’s fundamentals and positioning. Earlier this week, the company announced its Audience Unlimited data marketplace, which it called a “major upgrade”. It will leverage artificial intelligence and “help advertisers understand the relevance of all data sources to their campaigns”. 

The market reaction was immediate, with shares jumping as much as 7% on the day of the announcement. That kind of response shows there is still a genuine desire on Wall Street to believe in The Trade Desk’s innovation pipeline and its ability to stay relevant. 

Beyond that, the broader digital advertising market is stabilizing after a period of softness, with many of the Wall Street analysts also reiterating their bullish stances. Guggenheim, for example, earlier this week refreshed their Buy rating on The Trade Desk, echoing similarly bullish moves by Needham and UBS last month.  

Competition Still Looms Large

However, there is at least one reason this comeback might not stick, and that’s competition. The Trade Desk operates outside the walled gardens of some of its bigger peers, a positioning that has always been both a strength and a weakness. Independence gives it flexibility, but it also means constantly battling against giants with far deeper pockets and unmatched scale.

Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL), in particular, continues to dominate digital ad infrastructure, while platforms like Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) are making rapid gains. This puts pressure on The Trade Desk to consistently innovate while managing margins. If the giants intensify their push into programmatic advertising, The Trade Desk could find itself forced to spend more heavily to defend its turf.

Analysts Remain Unsure

Wall Street has not ignored this risk. Morgan Stanley recently moved to the sidelines, citing mounting concerns over slowing growth and intensifying competition. JMP Securities also expressed similar concerns earlier this week, cautioning investors that the ad-tech industry is among the most saturated sectors in the digital economy. 

Still, even with this cautious remark, they maintained their Market Outperform rating on the stock, while giving it a fresh price target of $60. From the $50 that shares of The Trade Desk were trading on Thursday morning, that’s a solid 20% in targeted upside.

Taken together, these updates highlight the risks but also reinforce the bull case that a comeback is starting to get underway—even if the stock still has more to prove against its bigger rivals.

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