Trump Tariff Ruling Could Come Friday From Supreme Court: What Investors Should Know

The U.S Supreme Court could make a ruling on tariffs imposed on other countries by President Donald Trump as early as Friday, Jan. 9. Here's a look at what's at stake and the stocks and sectors that could see the biggest impact.

Supreme Court Tariff Ruling

Since taking office in January 2025, President Trump has used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to justify imposing tariffs on countries. Trump's tariffs have been one of the most talked about items in the financial markets in the last year and a pending decision could impact where the market heads early in 2026.

The Supreme Court has said it will hold an Opinion Day on Friday, with the justices back from a break. That means that a decision on the tariffs could be publicly shared as early as 10 a.m. ET Friday. The case could also take longer and not be decided until later.

The Supreme Court’s 6-3 conservative majority has expedited the case, meaning a decision will come earlier in the current session rather than later in the summer.

Potential Ruling

Oral arguments heard in November centered on the 1977 IEEPA law, which had previously been used to address national security threats and had not been used to collect tariffs from existing trading partners.

Those arguing against the legality of the tariffs highlight that no president has ever used the IEEPA law to impose tariffs. Others see the act as an overreach of power and taking away something that belongs to Congress.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics recently noted similarities between the Supreme Court's December ruling on troops in Chicago and the pending tariff case. The court ruled 6-3 against troops in Chicago with items like Intrusion of powers, authority beyond text and bypassing existing authority cited in the ruling. With the Constitution granting Congress the power to tax and to regulate tariffs, the Peterson Institute for International Economics sees a potential ruling against Trump based on the recent Chicago case.

The Supreme Court may issue a clean decision or a partial decision, which could leave some tariffs in place and/or retain some authority for Trump in future decisions.

Supreme Court justices may also have to consider how tariffs collected will be returned if they rule against Trump. Money has been paid by countries, companies and consumers directly for tariffs, with consumers also being hit by rising costs.

A ruling against Trump's administration does not mean that tariffs are over. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said that there are potential workarounds if the Supreme Court rules against them, according to Marketwatch. Some experts argue that the administration could invoke the Trade Act of 1974 or the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 to impose tariffs instead.

What Prediction Markets Are Saying

Millions of dollars is being bet on prediction market sites like Kalshi and Polymarket on the upcoming Supreme Court ruling.

On Kalshi, there is currently a 28% chance the Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump's tariffs, implying a 72% chance it will rule in favor of overturning them. The odds of a favorable ruling for Trump were previously at 48% in November and 36% at the end of 2025 before declining in 2026.

On Polymarket, the odds that the Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump’s tariffs currently stand at 32%.

Another Kalshi prediction market is for how many of the nine Supreme Court justices will vote in favor of tariffs. The most popular prediction is three (42%), followed by five (18%) and four (16%).

There is a 10% chance that zero justices vote in favor of tariffs, with a less than 1% chance that all nine vote in favor of tariffs.

Stocks, Sectors to Watch

Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods previously told Benzinga that tariffs were the big story he was watching for 2026.

“I think we have a lot of bigger issues to look forward to as we start the new year including the Supreme Court decision,” Woods said.

Woods said the first half of 2026 could be the peak of next year, citing several factors, including the tariff ruling.

“The Supreme Court decision is the one thing I’m focused on. I was hoping we would get that out of the way before we started 2026. We didn’t.”

A ruling by the Supreme Court to repeal the tariffs could create uncertainties for how companies would get repaid, how consumers would be impacted and how countries would be compensated.

Woods said a company like Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST) could be affected by the ruling after already filing a lawsuit to be paid back.

The market expert also highlighted Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) stock, a company that has been “crushed due to tariffs.”

“See if they get a rebound because now the tariffs were deemed illegal, and we are owed money.”

Other Lawsuits

Other companies that have filed lawsuits over tariffs include subsidiaries of Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM), Revlon, Del Monte Fresh Produce and more, as reported by The Hill.

An October Reuters report highlighted the construction and industrial sectors as being among the most impacted by tariffs with Toyota and 3M Company (NYSE:MMM) among the named companies.

Nike and other footwear and apparel companies with large imports from Asia could be among the winners if the tariffs are ruled against. Companies that import items from countries with high tariffs could also be potential winners or losers depending on the ruling.

Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) and Deere & Co (NYSE:DE) are among the companies that have shared the financial impacts of tariffs with investors.

A Supreme Court ruling on Friday could trigger dramatic price swings in individual stocks and make sector- and country-specific ETFs volatile depending on the outcome.