Netflix, Apple Land Best Picture Oscar Nominations, But Prediction Markets Give Them Little Chance Of Winning

By Chris Katje | January 22, 2026, 12:33 PM

Streaming giant Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) will be hoping to bounce back at the 98th Academy Awards with 16 nominations across the major categories. The company led the way with 16 main category nominations last year, but took home only two trophies.

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Here's a look at this year's Best Picture race and some of the most nominated films.

Netflix, Apple Among 2026 Best Picture Nominations

Fresh off reporting its fourth-quarter earnings results, Netflix has landed two Best Picture nominations. The company's "Frankenstein" and "Train Dreams" are among the 10 nominated films and their respective North American distributor.

Here are the nominated films for Best Picture:

  • "Bugonia": Universal Pictures, a unit of Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA)
  • "F1": Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL)
  • "Frankenstein": Netflix
  • "Hamnet": Universal Pictures
  • "Marty Supreme": A24
  • "One Battle After Another": Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD)
  • "The Secret Agent": Neon
  • "Sentimental Value": Neon
  • "Sinners": Warner Bros. Discovery
  • "Train Dreams": Netflix

Along with Netflix being nominated for a Best Picture, technology giant Apple landed a surprise nomination for "F1," the highest-grossing film from the company ever.

Netflix has been nominated for a Best Picture Academy Award every year since 2019, but has yet to claim the top trophy. Apple became the first streaming company to win the award with 2022's "CODA."

Last year's ceremony saw Netflix nominated for 16 main category wins, including 13 nominations for “Emilia Perez.” Netflix won only two of the 16 main awards.

Prediction market Kalshi isn't giving high odds to Netflix or Apple to take home this year's Best Picture Academy Award. Here are the current favorites:

  • "One Battle After Another": 74%
  • "Sinners": 23%
  • "Hamnet": 7%
  • "Marty Supreme": 6%
  • "Bugonia": 2%
  • All Others: 1% Or Less

This means, users on the prediction market give a 1% or less chance to each of "Frankenstein," "Train Dreams" and "F1" to win the top award.

Netflix's best shot at a major award win could be Best Supporting Actor with Jacob Elordi given a 7% chance on Kalshi to win the award for his role in "Frankenstein."

Warner Bros. Discovery Tops Nominations, "Sinners" Breaks Records

While Netflix and Apple scored Best Picture nominations, it is Warner Bros. Discovery that came away as this year's big winner for nominations.

Warner Bros. Discovery scored 30 nominations in the major categories, ranking first among companies. The company's film "Sinners" scored a record 16 nominations, while "One Battle After Another" landed 13 nominations, as reported by Variety.

"Sinners" breaks the previous record of 14 Academy Nominations, which was held by "Titanic," "All About Eve" and "La La Land."

The two nominated Warner Bros. films are the betting favorites for the Best Picture award at Kalshi.

"Sinners" and "One Battle After Another" also landed multiple acting and directing nominations and are betting favorites in many of those categories.

The 98th Academy Awards airs March 15 on ABC and streams on Hulu, both units of Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS). Conan O'Brien returns to host for a second straight year.

Warner Bros. dominance in the nominations and potential Best Picture win comes as Netflix is trying to acquire the media giant.

Photos: Shutterstock

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