Rationale Behind FPA Crescent Fund's Sale of Microsoft (MSFT)

Investment management company First Pacific Advisors recently released its fourth-quarter 2025 investor letter for “The FPA Crescent Fund”. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The company primarily avoids speculative sectors of the market and adopts a "value-aware" perspective with an emphasis on long-term investments. In Q4, the Fund returned 3.09%, bringing the yearly returns to 17.65%. The twelve-month return was 79.0% of the global market, MSCI AWCI, exceeding the average net risk exposure of 64.9%. In addition, you can check the Fund's top five holdings to see its best picks for 2025.

In its fourth-quarter 2025 investor letter, The FPA Crescent Fund highlighted stocks like Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT). Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) is a multinational software company that develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions. The one-month return of Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) was -9.00%, and its shares gained 4.71% of their value over the last 52 weeks. On January 30, 2026, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) stock closed at $430.29 per share, with a market capitalization of $3.195 trillion.

The FPA Crescent Fund stated the following regarding Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) in its fourth quarter 2025 investor letter:

Now, as an example of a tough question currently being posed by the market, we submit Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) , a company we actually owned from 2010 to 2020. To begin, we hold management in the highest regards, particularly the CEO and CFO, who created tremendous value for us during our ownership. When we originally purchased Microsoft back in 2010, the valuation was less than 10x after-tax earnings after subtracting the cash on the balance sheet. The question we had to ask at the time was whether Microsoft was a melting ice cube, or could the company deliver an equity-type rate of return even if earnings never grew again. To our regret, we sold Microsoft too early, failing to appreciate how technological developments, particularly those of AI/cloud, would transform the business.

In the five years following our sale, from 2020 through 2025 , Microsoft grew its top line at a 12% compound annual growth rate (“ CAGR ”), and its bottom line even faster! But let’s now look at what one must believe to be constructive on the return prospects at the current multiple of 30x+ earnings. Of course, 30x earnings on its own is not necessarily the wrong multiple if Microsoft can continue to grow at a double-digit rate over the coming five years, and market analysts have noted that the valuation looks inexpensive five years out even if revenue were only to grow at a more pedestrian CAGR of 10% during this period…” (Click here to read the full text)

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) is in the second position on our list of 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 312 hedge fund portfolios held Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) at the end of the third quarter compared to 294 in the previous quarter. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) reported revenue of $77.7 billion, representing an 18% and 17% when adjusted for constant currency year-over-year increase. While we acknowledge the potential of Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

In another article, we covered Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) and shared the list of most profitable NASDAQ stocks to buy. In addition, please check out our hedge fund investor letters Q4 2025 page for more investor letters from hedge funds and other leading investors.

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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.