Gold's historical price surge has been the big story, but a more subtle indicator is that the next big buying trend may come through ETFs rather than physical gold.
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Goldman Sachs’ expectations of ramping up of gold ETF purchases by private investors, playing a part in driving up gold prices and data simultaneously suggesting heightened online searches for ways to buy gold, create a unique scenario at the intersection.
Gold, which posted its biggest monthly gain since the 1980s and came within a whisker of its record high of $5,600 an ounce before retreating, remains very much in the spotlight.
A new analysis of Google Trends data by OWNx Research reveals Americans are not only reading about gold but are also actively looking to invest in it. And the data defies some long-held notions about buying patterns.
Wyoming leads the pack, with 61% of searches on gold focused on the term "buy gold." But the larger point is that it's an urban phenomenon. States with high percentages of metropolitan areas, such as New York, Washington D.C., New Jersey, Georgia and Florida, also rank high for purchase intent, contrary to the notion that gold purchases are largely a rural activity.
What's even more significant is that "buy gold" searches are more prominent than those focused on learning more about gold, such as "gold coins" or "gold bars," pointing to immediate allocation decisions rather than casual research.
From Search Intent To ETF Flows
For ETF issuers and investors, this is a key distinction. Large, liquid gold ETFs such as the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD), iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:IAU), Aberdeen Physical Gold Shares (NYSE:SGOL), and GraniteShares Gold Trust (NYSE:BAR) provide the fastest and most frictionless way for individual investors to access the market, especially in markets where ETFs are more prevalent and have deeper brokerage distribution.
This makes them a natural conduit for demand that is implicit in search data, especially as investors look to capitalize on dips following sharp but transient pullbacks in spot prices.
Wall Street Sees ETFs As The Next Demand Leg
The big banks are already positioning ETFs as an essential component of the next move in gold. Goldman Sachs recently reaffirmed its call for $5,400 per ounce of gold by the end of 2026, citing continued central bank accumulation and a forthcoming increase in gold ETF demand as the Fed starts to cut rates.
The firm also identified further private-sector diversification as a major upside risk that has not yet been factored into its base-case scenario.
JPMorgan similarly expressed optimism about the metal's prospects, predicting that gold could hit $6,300 by the end of 2026 and asserting that volatility has not derailed the underlying trend.
However, the silver ETF market is more complex, with silver futures having strongly recovered this week after a sharp sell-off on Friday, although Goldman Sachs pointed out that a shortage of the metal in the London market is exacerbating volatility. As a result, silver ETFs, such as the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV), are more tactical, high-beta plays.
Gold is up 14% so far this year, while silver is up 16%. However, as the U.S. dollar continues to weaken and rate cuts come back into focus, retail search data indicates that interest in gold is no longer a theoretical concept. And ETFs could be where this demand ultimately manifests.
