I'm not here to blow your mind. This is just a quick reality check.
Quantum computing pioneer IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) soared in 2024. The stock price rose from less than $7 to more than $51 in four short months, as investors caught wind of game-changing advances in the quantum computing market. The enthusiasm died down in January 2025, when a leading industry insider pointed out that really useful quantum computers are about 20 years away.
So here's the thing. IonQ is an early leader in the quantum computing field. However, its business operations are minimal so far, and the long-term future is full of risks. This company just might become a massive powerhouse someday, but it's a long shot. Meanwhile, much larger and financially stable companies are even more important quantum computing experts today. They will probably stay far ahead of pure-play specialists in the long run. The stock is also incredibly overvalued in 2025.
In other words, you should treat IonQ as a speculative long-term bet. Everything could work out just right and make IonQ investors rich, but the opposite outcome seems more likely. You will probably be happier in the long run if you invest in the really big names of the quantum computing market.
Meet the real quantum computing heavyweights
Again, I'm not trying to blow your mind. Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL), IBM (NYSE: IBM), and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) will be worth much more than IonQ in 2035 -- just like they are today.
You may not have noticed that these are the biggest names in quantum computing. Let me sketch their expertise real quick:
- Alphabet's Google Quantum AI team inspired the quantum industry boom last November. They developed an error-correction model that moved quantum computers one small step toward the useful systems of the future. In the process, Google's quantum researchers quickly performed a benchmark task that would take forever to run on a digital supercomputer. This is why IonQ and other quantum computing stocks skyrocketed.
- IBM has been selling cloud-based access to quantum computers for years. Like Google, Big Blue develops and operates its own quantum computing hardware. The company also generates more patents in this market than any other American company -- its main competition in quantum research is Chinese.
- Nvidia isn't making quantum chips. Instead, the company focuses on software and processes that connect today's digital computers to the quantum computing systems of tomorrow. It was Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang who threw cold water on last fall's quantum boom by pointing out how long it will take to build a truly game-changing system.
Calmly investing in proven giants beats wild hype-chasing
Chasing after hot names like IonQ can be exciting, but you already know where I'm going with this -- investing is a marathon, not a sprint. That's true even in fast-moving technology markets such as the fledgling quantum computing industry. IonQ could be a big winner in the long haul, but the three tech giants are so far ahead, it's not even funny. They are also better equipped to handle a few failed research projects and dead-end developments, which I'm sure you'll see a lot of over the years.
Meanwhile, Nvidia investors tap into the artificial intelligence boom. Alphabet owners are also connected to that opportunity, not to mention the company's dominant digital marketing operations. IBM has been around for a century and change, and should stay relevant for a long time with its broad and deep portfolio of technology services.
IBM, Nvidia, and Alphabet are worth a lot more than IonQ today, and that shouldn't change in the next decade. That shouldn't be a controversial forecast.
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Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Anders Bylund has positions in Alphabet, International Business Machines, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, International Business Machines, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
