Markets Reflect Flattish - Q3 Earnings from NFLX, TXN, MAT

Tuesday, October 21, 2025

Markets moved through the day roughly flat — actually, more like a reflection in the pond: while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were modestly on either side of the zero-balance, the Dow finished the session up +0.47% and the small-cap Russell 2000 was -0.49%. The Russell is still off last week’s highs, even as it outperformed the other major indexes in the past couple trading days.

Bond yields are tacking down slightly — +3.96% on the 10-year and +3.46% on the 2-year — which makes sense when we price in another interest rate cut mid-next week. But it’s really Q3 earnings season that’s driving the bus, with mostly better-than-expected results ahead of today’s opening bell.
 

Q3 Earnings Roundup After the Bell: NFLX, TXN, MAT

We can’t really say the same for the companies reporting after today’s close; challenges are seeing guidance numbers lower on the bottom end at a couple choice firms with Q3 figures out this afternoon.

Netflix NFLX missed earnings expectations by more than a dollar — $5.87 per share versus the Zacks consensus $6.89, though still above the year-ago $5.40 per share. An unexpected expense related to a dispute with tax authorities in Brazil cut notably into operating margin, leading to the earnings miss. Revenues of $11.51 billion were slightly below the $11.52 billion estimate.

Shares are down -5% on this news, ending its streak of 6-straight quarterly earnings beats. But on the conference call, Netflix may speak on some possible acquisitions, including European Champions League soccer match broadcasts. Less likely, but still possible, is whether Netflix may be in the bidding to acquire Warner Brothers Discovery WBD, which has put itself up for sale earlier today.

Texas Instruments TXN shares are jumping around following its Q3 earnings report after today’s close, but are currently down -7% at this hour. Earnings of $1.48 per share beat the Zacks consensus by a penny, on revenues of $4.74 billion — bettering the $4.65 billion anticipated and +7% quarter over quarter. But a lowering bottom-end of guidance on both earnings and sales next quarter has taken some of the wind out of its sails.

Mattel MAT shares are -5% after being down double digits as an immediate reaction to the Q3 report. Earnings of 89 cents per share missed the $1.05 in the Zacks consensus, on $1.74 billion in quarterly sales which came up short of the $1.81 billion expected. Adjusted gross margins fell year over year, and although the company did not cite tariff realities as the culprit, they would stand to reason. Guidance remained in-line and the company expects a strong holiday season.
 

What to Expect from the Stock Market Tomorrow

Once again, we will not see any new economic reports on Wednesday, but plenty of earnings releases before and after the bell. AT&T T and GE Vernova GEV report ahead of the open and Tesla TSLA, IBM IBM and Southwest Airlines LUV following the close. As we see in today’s after-market reports, tariff-beholden companies may have a tougher time beating estimates than the early Q3 reports from the biggest Wall Street banks.

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