Pre-markets Down on Questions: Fed, Jobs & Q3 Earnings

Thursday, October 30, 2025

Pre-market futures are down at this hour, as market participants grapple with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s message to investors in yesterday’s press conference following the Fed’s quarter-point drop on interest rates. Powell said a subsequent 25 basis-point (bps) cut in December “is not a foregone conclusion — far from it.” Market indexes fell on that comment and are -160 points on the Dow, -20 points on the S&P 500, -120 on the Nasdaq and -9 on the Russell 2000.

Fed Chair Powell, at his best, is thorough and transparent in his decision making. At his worst, he can cling to outdated modes beyond their expiration dates. In this instance, he seems to be deliberately breaking that spell by promising not to pass another quarter-point cut at the final FOMC meeting of the year without thorough process. But what data would he be working from? The longer the government shutdown continues, the less opportunity the Fed would have to examine the economy.

We see yesterday’s 25 bps cut occur, even as the Inflation Rate has surged 70 bps points from April to September — +2.3% to +3.0%. This is inflation moving the wrong direction for a rate cut. That rising unemployment levels (again, which we don’t see with the government shut down) are wresting lowered rates only acts as a proxy for assisting the labor force: less pressure from interest rates may lead employers to hire more workers — in theory.

Weekly Jobless Claims are not out again this Thursday morning, for the fifth straight week. Where we last left off Initial Claims, we were down to a low 218K from a high 264K two weeks earlier. Continuing Claims had been riding a three-week streak around 1.93 million, down from the 1.94-1.975 million range from the previous 13 weeks. The U.S. labor market carries many dynamics within it, especially in present times. It would be nice to know where they stand now.

The first print on Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was also due this morning, as a precursor to the complete Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report scheduled for tomorrow. The consensus estimate is +2.8%, 100 bps below the final Q2 read of +3.8% and -0.6% in Q1. Compare this with the +2.4% average GDP for full-year 2024 and +3.3% in 2023.
 

Q3 Earnings at a Glance: MA, LLY, EL & More

A plethora of new earnings data is out ahead of the bell this morning, as well. We’ve already spilled a near-full allotment of pixels for this column this morning, so let’s make these quick.

Mastercard MA outperformed on its bottom line modestly, as per typical: $4.38 per share versus the Zacks consensus $4.31. Shares are up modestly on the news, still underperforming the S&P 500 year to date.

Eli Lilly & Co. LLY put out an impressive earnings beat for Q3 this morning, with $7.02 per share surpassing expectations by a solid dollar, $6.02, for an earnings surprise of +16.6%. Shares are up +3.4% on a challenging morning for the markets.

Crocs CROX was even more impressive for its Q3 earnings ahead of today’s open, with earnings of $2.92 per share zipping past estimates for $2.39, a +22.2% beat. Shares are climbing +5% on the news; still under water for 2025.

Estee Lauder EL was the big winner this morning, with a round +100% earnings beat for its fiscal Q1: 32 cents per share versus 16 cents in the Zacks consensus. Shares are only creeping northward, though the stock is already up +30% year to date.

What to Expect from the Stock Market Today

We expect more details from the historic meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi regarding a new trade agreement. As Trump flies back over the Pacific this morning, we see the U.S. has cut in half its tariff on Chinese fentanyl to the standard +10%, while China promises to delay its controls over rare earths by one year.

Q3 earnings season stays hot after today’s close, with Apple AAPL and Amazon AMZN the co-headliners among a full card of companies reporting. Zacks Rank #3 (Hold)-rated Apple is expected to fetch +5.5% earnings growth on +6.6% higher revenues year over year. Zacks Rank #2 (Buy)-rated Amazon looks toward +10.5% on earnings and +12% on revenues.

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Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Apple Inc. (AAPL): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Mastercard Incorporated (MA): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Crocs, Inc. (CROX): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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