Another Government Shutdown Looms: These 10 Stocks Suffered Last Time

The U.S. government is once again on the brink of a shutdown, potentially as soon as Saturday — barely more than two months after the longest closure in American history ended in November.

Congress must pass funding legislation by January 30, 2026, or parts of the federal government will partially shut down. The impasse centers on funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), particularly Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

According to Reuters, Senate Democrats have refused to supply the votes needed to pass a $64.4 billion DHS bill, urging Republicans to strip it out of a broader funding package that would also finance defense, health, transportation, education and housing programs through Sept. 30. Funding for those agencies expires after midnight Friday.

Democrats are pushing to delay and separate DHS funding following fatal ICE shootings in Minnesota, saying reforms are needed before additional money is approved. Republicans, meanwhile, are pressing ahead with the full spending package, rejecting changes that could derail the bill.

The rising political standoff has been mirrored in prediction markets. Polymarket currently assigns a 79% probability of a U.S. government shutdown this Saturday, a sharp jump from just 9% last Sunday following comments from President Donald Trump.

In an interview with CBS that aired Sunday, Trump said a shutdown was "probable" if Democrats did not back down from their funding demands, signaling little appetite for compromise ahead of the deadline.

With negotiations stalled, the government appears headed toward another partial shutdown.

How Markets Performed During The Last Government Shutdown

During the previous shutdown, which ran from Oct. 1, 2025 to Nov. 13, 2025, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) edged higher by about 0.5%.

Sector performance was largely muted, with healthcare standing out on the upside, while real estate, consumer discretionary and communication services lagged the broader market.

• Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLV): +6.46%
• Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLE): +1.28%
• Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLU): +0.72%
• Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLK): +0.69%
• SPY: +0.54%
• Financials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLF): -0.77%
• Industrials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLI): -1.17%
• Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLP): -1.19%
• Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLB): -1.25%
• Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLRE): -3.09%
• Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLY): -3.79%
• Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLC): -4.10%

According to Benzinga Pro data, some mega-cap stocks suffered steep declines during that shutdown window, including:

• Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL): -24.7%
• AppLovin Corp. (NASDAQ:APP): -21.0%
• Blackstone Inc. (NYSE:BX): -17.0%
• Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO): -16.9%
• Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META): -15.0%
• Arista Networks Inc. (NYSE:ANET): -12.7%
• Automatic Data Processing Inc. (NASDAQ:ADP): -12.7%
• Robinhood Markets Inc. (NASDAQ:HOOD): -12.7%
• Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE:BABA): -12.6%
• Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA): -12.5%

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