Spotify Stock Skyrockets 112% in a Year: What's Next for Investors?

Spotify Technology S.A. SPOT shares have skyrocketed 112.4% in a year, outperforming the 32.5% rally of its industry and the 12.4% rise in the Zacks S&P 500 Composite.

SPOT has outperformed its streaming rivals Apple AAPL and Amazon AMZN for the same period. Apple and Amazon have jumped 12.4% and 14.5% in the past year.

One-Year Price Performance

The massive rise in Spotify shares may appeal to investors. However, the eminent question that lingers is whether it is the right to invest in SPOT.

SPOT’s Growth Catalyst is Its User Base Expansion

Spotify demonstrated an impressive first-quarter 2025 performance, driven by user growth. The company added nearly 3 million monthly active users (MAU) and 5 million net new subscribers in a single quarter, portraying its ability to attract and retain users globally. This growing user base acts as a vital asset for revenue growth in the future. It not only boosts direct premium subscriptions but also enhances the potential to monetize its ad-supported tier.

This strong user rise lays a solid ground for positive developments. Latching onto its continued scalability, the company reinforces its network effects, attracting more users and content creators. Also, Spotify’s CEO’s aspirational vision of touching 1 billion subscribers shines a light on its long-term growth trajectory.

The company can improve its top and bottom line by a huge margin, given that it can achieve the desired number and can exercise strategic price adjustments in mature markets. Initiatives like the Spotify Partner Program, targeted at onboarding more video podcasters, hold the potential to widen the platform’s content offerings. This will also attract a wide audience and fuel further MAU growth and engagement in the long run.

Spotify is well-positioned to zoom past its competitors and become the dominant audio streaming platform by capitalizing on its user base expansion, and tactfully investing in monetization and content strategy.

Spotify’s Promising Top & Bottom-Line Prospects

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SPOT’s 2025 and 2026 revenues is pegged at $19.9 billion and 22.8 billion, implying 17.4% and 14.3% year-over-year growth, respectively. The consensus estimate for Spotify’s 2025 and 2026 earnings per share stands at $9.88 and $13.69, suggesting 66.1% and 38.5% year-over-year increases, respectively.

SPOT’s Liquidity Position Lags Industry

Spotify’s current ratio at the end of the first quarter of 2025 stood at 1.48, which sets a good tone for investors. However, something that can raise concern is its stance when compared with the industry average. Currently, the industry average is 2.54, which is substantially higher than SPOT’s current ratio. Adding to this concern, the metric has declined 21% from the preceding quarter. If continued, it can hurt the company’s liquidity position.

Intense Competition Hurts Spotify

Apple Music and Amazon Music are the most notable competitors of Spotify. The financial strength of these companies is something to look out for. These major players can use their financial prowess to reduce streaming prices, and lower or limit content availability, thereby hurting SPOT’s monetization strategy.

Such an incident can bleed into hurting the company’s stock price. Strong reliance on third-party content licenses exposes Spotify to royalty cost hikes, affecting margins as the company expands its content offerings to include audiobooks and video.

SPOT Stock Looks Pricey

Spotify’s stock price increase led to elevated valuations. It is priced at 56.1 times forward 12-month earnings per share, which is higher than the industry’s average of 37.8 times. When looking at the trailing 12-month EV-to-EBITDA ratio, Spotify is trading at 62.1 times, far exceeding the industry’s average of 13.5 times.

Spotify: Wait & Watch

SPOT’s user base expansion is the key to success as it positions the company well for revenue growth. The company provides a strong top and bottom-line outlook, which favors its long-term growth objective.

Spotify’s robust liquidity position reaffirms its financial strength. However, the market in which the company operates poses a substantial threat to its performance. Adding to this concern is its premium valuation, hurting investor sentiment.

We recommend investors take a cautious approach and initiate a “Hold” strategy. Increasing exposure is suggested after signs of lasting growth and a more attracting valuation appears.

Spotify carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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